[Advisory] E-learning and Distance Education Resources
Ray Tolley
rjt@maximise-ict.co.uk
Thu, 31 Dec 2009 22:39:59 -0000
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Tony Bates has some very pertinent observations, particularly his notes =
on e-books and e-learning, but still not sure about cloud computing:
<http://www.tonybates.ca> E-learning and Distance Education Resources=20
=
<http://fusion.google.com/add?source=3Datgs&feedurl=3Dhttp://feeds.feedbu=
rner.com/tonybates>=20
=09
_____ =20
=
<http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tonybates/~3/z65szU-Hsps/?utm_source=3Dfe=
edburner&utm_medium=3Demail> Great expectations for e-learning in 2010=20
Posted: 30 Dec 2009 03:22 PM PST
<http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/Monkey-throwing-darts.jpg> =
=C2=A9 2007 Index Funds Advisors, Inc.
=C2=A9 2007 Index Funds Advisors, Inc.
In the Globe and Mail on December 19, Leah McLaren wrote:
=E2=80=98We are living in an Era of Perpetual Advice =E2=80=93 and =
almost none of it is any good=E2=80=A6.the truth is, if you had a monkey =
throwing darts, you=E2=80=99d have a better chance of predicting the =
future.=E2=80=99
OK =E2=80=93 so you can=E2=80=99t say you weren=E2=80=99t warned! =
Nevertheless, here are my predictions for 2010.
1. Follow the money.=20
In many countries, 2010 will be a difficult year financially. =
Governments are going to have to take control of their large deficits, =
and their options are limited: cut expenditure, increase taxes, borrow =
more money. But you won=E2=80=99t be able to borrow more money to pay =
off the old because it will be too expensive, and who is going into an =
election with a promise of more taxes? With a majority of the electorate =
becoming seniors (well, almost), you can=E2=80=99t cut health budgets. =
So we=E2=80=99ll have to cut the universities (after the civil service =
and the wages of elected officials, of course). See, that decision =
wasn=E2=80=99t so difficult after all, was it?
The USA and Britain in particular face some very difficult financial =
decisions over the next few years (and I believe 2011 will be worse than =
2010 for public sector cuts, so it won=E2=80=99t be a question of trying =
to ride out things until the situation improves =E2=80=93 it could be a =
long and increasingly bumpy ride).
The big unknown is how governments and public post-secondary =
institutions will respond to lower revenues. Here are some =
possibilities:
=C2=A7 more of the same: larger classes, more adjuncts, higher tuition =
fees, poorer service. (Well, at least it=E2=80=99s a strategy that has =
been well tried and tested.)
=C2=A7 cut enrolments: well, that can=E2=80=99t be done quickly =
=E2=80=93 students are already enrolled and will need at least four =
years to work through the system =E2=80=93 and most governments in =
economically advanced countries still recognise that they need an =
educated workforce. Even more importantly, students and their parents =
are voters.
=C2=A7 greater differentiation between institutions, with a few rich =
research universities maintaining current levels of funding, with the =
rest being even more severely cut. (A solution proposed by the =
=E2=80=98elite=E2=80=99 Canadian research universities =E2=80=93 =
equivalent of throwing women and children off the life raft so the =
strong can survive.)
=C2=A7 a multi-tiered and increasingly differentiated faculty: a very =
few research-only professors, slightly more teaching-only professors, =
and many more adjunct faculty, but with poorer pay
=C2=A7 closing of educational support units, cancelling or not renewing =
licenses for LMSs, and reducing IT support staff, to enable the =
institution to focus on =E2=80=98core=E2=80=99 activities (such as =
college football in the USA).
=C2=A7 or will at least some governments or institutions look at new =
models for post-secondary education that focus less on expensive =
buildings and more on virtual learning?
I suspect we will see all these (and some other) developments in 2010, =
but every challenge is also an opportunity, and the increasingly dire =
state of public financing does offer a real opportunity to re-think =
current teaching and learning environments in ways that will not only =
help control costs but also produce the learning needed in the 21st =
century.
So, especially if you are not working in a privileged first-tier =
research university, brush off your revolutionary plans for e-learning =
(no, NOT clickers) and have them ready for your sorely pressed =
administration in 2010. It would also help if you could show how this =
could save some money as well, but that might be another challenge.
2. E-publishing
<http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/e-publishing.jpg> =C2=A9 =
Forex e-books
=C2=A9 Forex e-books
Well, e-publishing has been around for some time, and the Kindle was =
Amazon=E2=80=99s biggest selling item in 2009. Thus I predict that 2010 =
will see e-publishing overtaking traditional printing for academic =
textbooks. The simple reason is cost. Students are paying more for =
printed text books than for tuition fees in many programs, whereas =
increasingly, through online publishing, e-textbooks can be downloaded =
free or at much lower cost.
Within e-publishing there are two separate trends. With open textbook =
publishing, books go through a similar review process as print =
textbooks, but the business model is completely different, since open =
textbooks can be downloaded without cost. For instance, from =
<http://www.flatworldknowledge.com/> Flatworld
We preserve the best of the old =E2=80=93 books by leading experts, =
rigorously reviewed and developed to the highest standards. Then we flip =
it all on its head.
Our books are free online. We offer convenient, low-cost choices for =
students =E2=80=93 softcovers for under $30, audio books and chapters, =
self-print options, and more. Our books are open for instructors to =
modify and make their own (for their own course =E2=80=93 not for =
anybody else=E2=80=99s). Our books are the hub of a social learning =
network where students learn from the book and each other.
Traditional book publishers are also moving to e-publication. For =
instance, Jossey-Bass sold more electronic copies than print copies of =
=E2=80=98 =
<http://www.josseybass.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-0787960349.html>=
Effective Teaching with Technology in Higher Education=E2=80=98 in 2009 =
(despite the electronic option not being very clear on the ordering web =
site). However, most publishers charge the same for downloading as for =
print copies. I suspect this business model will change, with electronic =
copies becoming cheaper (but still not free) from traditional =
publishers, who will have to respond to the competition from open =
textbooks. Nevertheless, there will still be a market for traditional =
publishers of textbooks (even though these will increasingly be =
electronic versions) because most authors want some financial reward for =
the considerable effort required in writing a best-selling textbook, and =
professional editorial help (I know of what I speak).
I use the term e-publishing, not e-books, deliberately. I don=E2=80=99t =
see a long-term future for e-books, at least for study purposes. Despite =
its high sales to the general public, the Kindle does not provide the =
kind of interface that makes it appealing to students =E2=80=93 nor does =
the Sony Reader:
Complaining about usability, device issues and poor value for money, =
students who routinely get their movies and music online are still =
consistently opting for thick, clunky old-school books when given a =
choice. =
<http://www.universityaffairs.ca/electronic-textbooks-set-to-take-over.as=
px> Johnson, 2009
The problem is that e-books are stand-alone devices that do not directly =
integrate with the other tools students are using, particularly a =
desktop or laptop computer. The interface of e-books is not really well =
designed for study purposes.
Thus watch particularly for online book distributors such as =
<http://www.kobobooks.com/> Kobo, and devices that use open standards, =
that will allow books to be purchased (probably at around $10 a copy) =
from any supplier and also traded, further depressing the cost. More =
importantly, Kobo and other open standard online distributors do not =
require you to purchase a specific device to read them =E2=80=93 you can =
read them online from a standard computer or mobile phone, or download =
them for reading on your own computer. This is why, at least for study =
purposes, Kobo and other open standard publishing will eventually win =
out over Kindle and the Sony Reader.
3. The year of mobile learning?
<http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/Mobiles.jpg> =C2=A9 =
Devicepedia.com
=C2=A9 Devicepedia.com
Could 2010 be the year when mobile learning ceases to be mainly promise =
and becomes an actual reality? Or perhaps it would be fairer to say will =
mobile learning move from being a fringe or supplementary activity and =
become the primary delivery medium?
If it does, I suspect it will not be in the USA, Canada, Australia or =
Europe, but in South Africa, an Asian country such as India, or possibly =
Brazil. Why? Because their need to move to mobile learning is greater. =
In these countries, many more people have a mobile phone than =
ground-based Internet access or a computer. This development is also =
less likely to be for post-secondary educational purposes, but to enable =
students to obtain high school qualifications or for lifelong learning =
and company training (bigger markets, greater need).
Nor will the application be =E2=80=98pure=E2=80=99 mobile learning, but =
more likely a hybrid of mobile learning combined with occasional access =
to a computer and terrestrial Internet (mainly to keep down roaming =
charges), possibly at local Internet caf=C3=A9s or conventional =
educational institutions outside =E2=80=98normal=E2=80=99 teaching =
hours..
I still think though that this is more likely to happen on a large scale =
in 2011 or 2012, when there will be hand held devices with bigger or =
expandable screens, and more importantly a better virtual learning =
environment (educational apps and interactive materials designed for =
mobile learning.)
4. Convergence through cloud computing
Maybe not in 2010, but perhaps in 2011, we will see the ultimate, all =
purpose device that will combine a big enough screen/fine enough =
resolution (maybe in a foldable format), an intuitive user interface, =
full mobile access, a full range of applications, and still be small =
enough to carry in your pocket or purse (essential for getting through =
security at airports, as well). I=E2=80=99m sure Steve Jobs already has =
this under way. The device will be able to do this through using cloud =
computing, where most applications and data will be stored.
The interface is likely to be the biggest challenge. Whatever happened =
to voice recognition? This was heralded in 1999 as the big breakthrough =
in interfacing with computers, but it has proved to be one technology =
too difficult to master (if you quote telephone companies=E2=80=99 =
automatic answering service as an example of where voice recognition has =
been applied, you=E2=80=99ve just proved my point). The qwerty keyboard =
is a clumsy device, as are mouses and pull-down menus. The iPhone in =
particular has introduced some nice haptic interfaces, but we still need =
at least one more breakthrough to make small, mobile devices really =
useful for study purposes. (We also need to change our vision for =
teaching and learning too, to accommodate more rich media, both for =
instruction and for assessment purposes, thus reducing our dependence on =
a qwerty keyboard for text).
5. Brazil: the international leader in e-learning in 2010?
<http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/P1010011.JPG> Copacabana =
beach, Rio de Janeiro
Copacabana beach, Rio de Janeiro
Several years ago, the Federal Government in Brazil issued an edict that =
all federal government IT software purchases should be open source. One =
result of this was the development of a private industry sector =
specialising in the development of high quality online learning =
materials for Brazil=E2=80=99s enormous school system (see for instance =
<http://www.webaula.com.br/> WebAula). The government is also requiring =
a fully graduate teaching force, and e-learning is a critical factor in =
its in-service teacher training. Every school in the country is to have =
a computer lab and Internet access by 2010. Similarly there is a =
fast-growing business sector producing e-learning for corporate and =
company training. It was one of the first countries to establish an open =
content program, through the <http://www.escoladofuturo.com.br/> Escola =
do Futuro at the Universidad de Sao Paulo in 1995, which aimed to make =
all the classic Portuguese-language publications available free online =
to schools, and which now has a wide range of e-learning projects.
These are just a few of the many steps being taken in Brazil with =
respect to e-learning. (We would know a lot more about e-learning in =
Brazil if we spoke Portuguese.) With its GDP growing at an anticipated =
8% or more in 2010, and hence resources for continued investment in =
e-learning, Brazil is on track to becoming the world leader in its use =
of e-learning.
Another country to watch is India, with a vast and growing e-learning =
industry, the ability and resources to innovate in applications of =
e-learning, and English as a major language. Increasingly we will see =
the development of online learning materials, courses and quality open =
content being outsourced to Indian companies.This may have a negative =
impact on educational technology support units in our universities and =
colleges. (The best defence will be to focus on the application of =
educational theory and pedagogy to the design of quality e-learning, =
where compared to IT development and support, India is less =
competitive).
China, on the other hand, although it has an equally vast number of =
e-learning applications, is considerably hamstrung by centralised =
control over content and a rigid, behaviourist teaching method. Its =
restrictions on Internet use also hamper the development of the =
necessary skills and resources needed to develop and grow =
knowledge-based industries.
6. Something no-one has ever thought of
Well, that=E2=80=99s the nature of new technology, isn=E2=80=99t it? =
There will almost certainly be something =E2=80=98new=E2=80=99 and =
dynamic in technology in 2010 that we don=E2=80=99t know about yet,which =
will be jumped on as the latest =E2=80=99saviour=E2=80=99 of education. =
The issue though is whether it will turn out to be really useful, lead =
to better learning, or impact on our institutions, or whether it will =
just drift through academe and disappear as quickly as it came.
Conclusions
It should be another interesting year for e-learning. I=E2=80=99d be =
interested in what you think will be significant e-learning developments =
in 2010.
In the meantime, I wish you every success with your endeavours, may your =
faculty be innovative, your administration supportive and your students =
brilliant. Happy 2010!
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<div class=3DSection1>
<p class=3DMsoNormal><span style=3D'color:#1F497D'>Tony Bates has some =
very
pertinent observations, particularly his notes on e-books and =
e-learning, but
still not sure about cloud computing:</span></p>
<div style=3D'margin-left:24.0pt;margin-right:24.0pt' id=3Demailbody>
<table class=3DMsoNormalTable border=3D0 cellpadding=3D0 width=3D"100%"
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<td width=3D"99%" valign=3Dtop style=3D'width:99.0%;padding:0cm 0cm =
0cm 0cm'>
<h1 style=3D'margin:0cm;margin-bottom:.0001pt'><a =
href=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca"
title=3D"(http://www.tonybates.ca)"><span =
style=3D'font-size:16.5pt;font-family:
=
"Arial","sans-serif";color:#888888;font-weight:normal;text-decoration:non=
e'>E-learning
and Distance Education Resources</span></a> <br>
<a
=
href=3D"http://fusion.google.com/add?source=3Datgs&feedurl=3Dhttp://f=
eeds.feedburner.com/tonybates"><span
style=3D'text-decoration:none'><img border=3D0 id=3D"_x0000_i1035"
=
src=3D"http://gmodules.com/ig/images/plus_google.gif"></span></a><o:p></o=
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</tr>
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<td style=3D'padding:.75pt .75pt .75pt .75pt'>
<p =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:12.0pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:2.25pt;=
margin-left:0cm;line-height:16.8pt'><a name=3D1></a><a
=
href=3D"http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/tonybates/~3/z65szU-Hsps/?utm_sour=
ce=3Dfeedburner&utm_medium=3Demail"><b><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.5pt;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#000099;=
text-decoration:none'>Great expectations for e-learning in =
2010</span></b></a>
<o:p></o:p></p>
<p =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:6.75pt;margin-right:0cm;margin-bottom:2.25pt;=
margin-left:0cm;line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:#555555'>Posted: 30 Dec =
2009
03:22 PM PST<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div>
<div id=3D"attachment_2981">
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;
line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a
=
href=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/Monkey-throwing-darts.=
jpg"><b><span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'><img border=3D0 =
width=3D267
height=3D300 id=3D"_x0000_i1027"
=
src=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/Monkey-throwing-darts-2=
67x300.jpg"
alt=3D"=C2=A9 2007 Index Funds Advisors, =
Inc."></span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3Dwp-caption-text style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:
=
7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>=C2=A9=
2007
Index Funds Advisors, Inc.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>In the Globe and Mail on
December 19, Leah McLaren wrote:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><em><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>=E2=80=98We are =
living in an Era
of Perpetual Advice =E2=80=93 and almost none of it is any =
good=E2=80=A6.the truth is, if you
had a monkey throwing darts, you=E2=80=99d have a better chance of =
predicting the
future.=E2=80=99</span></em><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:
"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>OK =E2=80=93 so you =
can=E2=80=99t say you
weren=E2=80=99t warned! Nevertheless, here are my predictions for =
2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>1. Follow the =
money. </span></strong><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>In many countries, 2010 =
will be
a difficult year financially. Governments are going to have to take =
control
of their large deficits, and their options are limited: cut =
expenditure,
increase taxes, borrow more money. But you won=E2=80=99t be able to =
borrow more money
to pay off the old because it will be too expensive, and who is going =
into an
election with a promise of more taxes? With a majority of the =
electorate
becoming seniors (well, almost), you can=E2=80=99t cut health budgets. =
So we=E2=80=99ll have
to cut the universities (after the civil service and the wages of =
elected
officials, of course). See, that decision wasn=E2=80=99t so difficult =
after all, was
it?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>The USA and Britain in
particular face some very difficult financial decisions over the next =
few
years (and I believe 2011 will be worse than 2010 for public sector =
cuts, so
it won=E2=80=99t be a question of trying to ride out things until the =
situation
improves =E2=80=93 it could be a long and increasingly bumpy =
ride).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>The big unknown is how
governments and public post-secondary institutions will respond to =
lower
revenues. Here are some possibilities:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:48.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:140%;mso-list:l0 =
level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;line-height:140%;font-family:Wingdings;color:bl=
ack'><span
style=3D'mso-list:Ignore'>=C2=A7<span style=3D'font:7.0pt "Times New =
Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'>more of the same: larger classes, more adjuncts, higher =
tuition
fees, poorer service. (Well, at least it=E2=80=99s a strategy that has =
been well
tried and tested.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:48.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:140%;mso-list:l0 =
level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;line-height:140%;font-family:Wingdings;color:bl=
ack'><span
style=3D'mso-list:Ignore'>=C2=A7<span style=3D'font:7.0pt "Times New =
Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'>cut enrolments: well, that can=E2=80=99t be done quickly =
=E2=80=93 students are
already enrolled and will need at least four years to work through the =
system
=E2=80=93 and most governments in economically advanced countries =
still recognise
that they need an educated workforce. Even more importantly, students =
and
their parents are voters.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:48.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:140%;mso-list:l0 =
level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;line-height:140%;font-family:Wingdings;color:bl=
ack'><span
style=3D'mso-list:Ignore'>=C2=A7<span style=3D'font:7.0pt "Times New =
Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'>greater differentiation between institutions, with a few =
rich
research universities maintaining current levels of funding, with the =
rest
being even more severely cut. (A solution proposed by the =
=E2=80=98elite=E2=80=99 Canadian
research universities =E2=80=93 equivalent of throwing women and =
children off the
life raft so the strong can survive.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:48.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:140%;mso-list:l0 =
level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;line-height:140%;font-family:Wingdings;color:bl=
ack'><span
style=3D'mso-list:Ignore'>=C2=A7<span style=3D'font:7.0pt "Times New =
Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'>a multi-tiered and increasingly differentiated =
faculty: a
very few research-only professors, slightly more teaching-only =
professors,
and many more adjunct faculty, but with poorer =
pay<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:48.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:140%;mso-list:l0 =
level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;line-height:140%;font-family:Wingdings;color:bl=
ack'><span
style=3D'mso-list:Ignore'>=C2=A7<span style=3D'font:7.0pt "Times New =
Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'>closing of educational support units, cancelling or not =
renewing
licenses for LMSs, and reducing IT support staff, to enable the =
institution
to focus on =E2=80=98core=E2=80=99 activities (such as college =
football in the USA).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3DMsoNormal =
style=3D'mso-margin-top-alt:auto;margin-bottom:12.0pt;
margin-left:48.0pt;text-indent:-18.0pt;line-height:140%;mso-list:l0 =
level1 lfo1'><![if !supportLists]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:10.0pt;line-height:140%;font-family:Wingdings;color:bl=
ack'><span
style=3D'mso-list:Ignore'>=C2=A7<span style=3D'font:7.0pt "Times New =
Roman"'> </span></span></span><![endif]><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'>or will at least some governments or institutions look at =
new
models for post-secondary education that focus less on expensive =
buildings
and more on virtual learning?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>I suspect we will see =
all these
(and some other) developments in 2010, but every challenge is also an
opportunity, and the increasingly dire state of public financing does =
offer a
real opportunity to re-think current teaching and learning =
environments in
ways that will not only help control costs but also produce the =
learning
needed in the 21st century.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>So, especially if you =
are not
working in a privileged first-tier research university, brush off your
revolutionary plans for e-learning (no, NOT clickers) and have them =
ready for
your sorely pressed administration in 2010. It would also help if you =
could
show how this could save some money as well, but that might be another
challenge.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>2. =
E-publishing</span></strong><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div id=3D"attachment_2984">
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;
line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a
=
href=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/e-publishing.jpg"><b><=
span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'><img border=3D0 =
width=3D300
height=3D285 id=3D"_x0000_i1028"
=
src=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/e-publishing-300x285.jp=
g"
alt=3D"=C2=A9 Forex e-books"></span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3Dwp-caption-text style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:
=
7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>=C2=A9=
Forex
e-books<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Well, e-publishing has =
been
around for some time, and the Kindle was Amazon=E2=80=99s biggest =
selling item in
2009. Thus I predict that 2010 will see e-publishing overtaking =
traditional
printing for academic textbooks. The simple reason is cost. Students =
are
paying more for printed text books than for tuition fees in many =
programs,
whereas increasingly, through online publishing, e-textbooks can be
downloaded free or at much lower cost.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Within e-publishing =
there are
two separate trends. With open textbook publishing, books go through a
similar review process as print textbooks, but the business model is
completely different, since open textbooks can be downloaded without =
cost.
For instance, from <a =
href=3D"http://www.flatworldknowledge.com/"><b><span
=
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'>Flatworld</span></b></a><o:p=
></o:p></span></p>
<blockquote style=3D'border:none;border-left:solid #DADADA =
4.5pt;padding:0cm 0cm 0cm 5.0pt;
margin-left:12.0pt;margin-top:5.0pt;margin-bottom:5.0pt'>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><em><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>We preserve the =
best of
the old =E2=80=93 books by leading experts, rigorously reviewed and =
developed to the
highest standards. Then we flip it all on its head.</span></em><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><em><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Our books are free =
online.
We offer convenient, low-cost choices for students =E2=80=93 =
softcovers for under
$30, audio books and chapters, self-print options, and more. Our books =
are
open for instructors to modify and make their own (for their own =
course =E2=80=93 not
for anybody else=E2=80=99s). Our books are the hub of a social =
learning network where
students learn from the book and each other.</span></em><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
</blockquote>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Traditional book =
publishers are
also moving to e-publication. For instance, Jossey-Bass sold more =
electronic
copies than print copies of =E2=80=98<a
=
href=3D"http://www.josseybass.com/WileyCDA/WileyTitle/productCd-078796034=
9.html"><b><span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'>Effective Teaching with =
Technology
in Higher Education</span></b></a>=E2=80=98 in 2009 (despite the =
electronic option
not being very clear on the ordering web site). However, most =
publishers
charge the same for downloading as for print copies. I suspect this =
business
model will change, with electronic copies becoming cheaper (but still =
not
free) from traditional publishers, who will have to respond to the
competition from open textbooks. Nevertheless, there will still be a =
market
for traditional publishers of textbooks (even though these will =
increasingly
be electronic versions) because most authors want some financial =
reward for
the considerable effort required in writing a best-selling textbook, =
and
professional editorial help (I know of what I =
speak).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>I use the term =
e-publishing,
not e-books, deliberately. I don=E2=80=99t see a long-term future for =
e-books, at
least for study purposes. Despite its high sales to the general =
public, the
Kindle does not provide the kind of interface that makes it appealing =
to
students =E2=80=93 nor does the Sony Reader:<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><em><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Complaining about
usability, device issues and poor value for money, students who =
routinely get
their movies and music online are still consistently opting for thick, =
clunky
old-school books when given a choice.<a
=
href=3D"http://www.universityaffairs.ca/electronic-textbooks-set-to-take-=
over.aspx"><b><span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'> Johnson, =
2009</span></b></a></span></em><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>The problem is that =
e-books are
stand-alone devices that do not directly integrate with the other =
tools
students are using, particularly a desktop or laptop computer. The =
interface
of e-books is not really well designed for study =
purposes.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Thus watch particularly =
for
online book distributors such as <a =
href=3D"http://www.kobobooks.com/"><b><span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'>Kobo</span></b></a>, and =
devices
that use open standards, that will allow books to be purchased =
(probably at
around $10 a copy) from any supplier and also traded, further =
depressing the
cost. More importantly, Kobo and other open standard online =
distributors do
not require you to purchase a specific device to read them =E2=80=93 =
you can read
them online from a standard computer or mobile phone, or download them =
for
reading on your own computer. This is why, at least for study =
purposes, Kobo
and other open standard publishing will eventually win out over Kindle =
and
the Sony Reader.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>3. The year of =
mobile
learning?</span></strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div id=3D"attachment_2986">
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;
line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a
=
href=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/Mobiles.jpg"><b><span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'><img border=3D0 =
width=3D300
height=3D241 id=3D"_x0000_i1029"
src=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/Mobiles-300x241.jpg"
alt=3D"=C2=A9 Devicepedia.com"></span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3Dwp-caption-text style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:
=
7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>=C2=A9=
Devicepedia.com<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Could 2010 be the year =
when
mobile learning ceases to be mainly promise and becomes an actual =
reality? Or
perhaps it would be fairer to say will mobile learning move from being =
a
fringe or supplementary activity and become the primary delivery =
medium?<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>If it does, I suspect it =
will
not be in the USA, Canada, Australia or Europe, but in South Africa, =
an Asian
country such as India, or possibly Brazil. Why? Because their need to =
move to
mobile learning is greater. In these countries, many more people have =
a
mobile phone than ground-based Internet access or a computer. This
development is also less likely to be for post-secondary educational
purposes, but to enable students to obtain high school qualifications =
or for
lifelong learning and company training (bigger markets, greater =
need).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Nor will the application =
be
=E2=80=98pure=E2=80=99 mobile learning, but more likely a hybrid of =
mobile learning combined
with occasional access to a computer and terrestrial Internet (mainly =
to keep
down roaming charges), possibly at local Internet caf=C3=A9s or =
conventional
educational institutions outside =E2=80=98normal=E2=80=99 teaching =
hours..<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>I still think though =
that this
is more likely to happen on a large scale in 2011 or 2012, when there =
will be
hand held devices with bigger or expandable screens, and more =
importantly a
better virtual learning environment (educational apps and interactive
materials designed for mobile learning.)<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>4. Convergence =
through
cloud computing</span></strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Maybe not in 2010, but =
perhaps
in 2011, we will see the ultimate, all purpose device<strong><span
style=3D'font-family:"Arial","sans-serif"'> </span></strong>that will =
combine a
big enough screen/fine enough resolution (maybe in a foldable format), =
an
intuitive user interface, full mobile access, a full range of =
applications,
and still be small enough to carry in your pocket or purse (essential =
for
getting through security at airports, as well). I=E2=80=99m sure Steve =
Jobs already
has this under way. The device will be able to do this through using =
cloud
computing, where most applications and data will be =
stored.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>The interface is likely =
to be
the biggest challenge. Whatever happened to voice recognition? This =
was
heralded in 1999 as the big breakthrough in interfacing with =
computers, but
it has proved to be one technology too difficult to master (if you =
quote
telephone companies=E2=80=99 automatic answering service as an example =
of where voice
recognition has been applied, you=E2=80=99ve just proved my point). =
The qwerty
keyboard is a clumsy device, as are mouses and pull-down menus. The =
iPhone in
particular has introduced some nice haptic interfaces, but we still =
need at
least one more breakthrough to make small, mobile devices really =
useful for
study purposes. (We also need to change our vision for teaching and =
learning
too, to accommodate more rich media, both for instruction and for =
assessment
purposes, thus reducing our dependence on a qwerty keyboard for =
text).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>5. Brazil: the
international leader in e-learning in 2010?</span></strong><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<div id=3D"attachment_2988">
<p class=3DMsoNormal style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;
line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><a
=
href=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/P1010011.JPG"><b><span=
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'><img border=3D0 =
width=3D300
height=3D225 id=3D"_x0000_i1030"
=
src=3D"http://www.tonybates.ca/wp-content/uploads/P1010011-300x225.jpg"
alt=3D"Copacabana beach, Rio de =
Janeiro"></span></b></a><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class=3Dwp-caption-text style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:
=
7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Copa=
cabana
beach, Rio de Janeiro<o:p></o:p></span></p>
</div>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Several years ago, the =
Federal
Government in Brazil issued an edict that all federal government IT =
software
purchases should be open source. One result of this was the =
development of a
private industry sector specialising in the development of high =
quality
online learning materials for Brazil=E2=80=99s enormous school system =
(see for
instance <a href=3D"http://www.webaula.com.br/"><b><span =
style=3D'color:#000099;
text-decoration:none'>WebAula</span></b></a>). The government is also
requiring a fully graduate teaching force, and e-learning is a =
critical
factor in its in-service teacher training. Every school in the country =
is to
have a computer lab and Internet access by 2010. Similarly there is a
fast-growing business sector producing e-learning for corporate and =
company
training. It was one of the first countries to establish an open =
content
program, through the <a =
href=3D"http://www.escoladofuturo.com.br/"><b><span
style=3D'color:#000099;text-decoration:none'>Escola do =
Futuro</span></b></a> at
the Universidad de Sao Paulo in 1995, which aimed to make all the =
classic
Portuguese-language publications available free online to schools, and =
which
now has a wide range of e-learning projects.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>These are just a few of =
the
many steps being taken in Brazil with respect to e-learning. (We would =
know a
lot more about e-learning in Brazil if we spoke Portuguese.) With its =
GDP
growing at an anticipated 8% or more in 2010, and hence resources for
continued investment in e-learning, Brazil is on track to becoming the =
world
leader in its use of e-learning.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Another country to watch =
is
India, with a vast and growing e-learning industry, the ability and =
resources
to innovate in applications of e-learning, and English as a major =
language.
Increasingly we will see the development of online learning materials,
courses and quality open content being outsourced to Indian =
companies.This
may have a negative impact on educational technology support units in =
our
universities and colleges. (The best defence will be to focus on the
application of educational theory and pedagogy to the design of =
quality
e-learning, where compared to IT development and support, India is =
less competitive).<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>China, on the other =
hand,
although it has an equally vast number of e-learning applications, is
considerably hamstrung by centralised control over content and a =
rigid,
behaviourist teaching method. Its restrictions on Internet use also =
hamper
the development of the necessary skills and resources needed to =
develop and
grow knowledge-based industries.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>6. Something no-one =
has
ever thought of</span></strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Well, that=E2=80=99s the =
nature of new
technology, isn=E2=80=99t it? There will almost certainly be something =
=E2=80=98new=E2=80=99 and
dynamic in technology in 2010 that we don=E2=80=99t know about =
yet,which will be
jumped on as the latest =E2=80=99saviour=E2=80=99 of education. The =
issue though is whether
it will turn out to be really useful, lead to better learning, or =
impact on
our institutions, or whether it will just drift through academe and =
disappear
as quickly as it came.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><strong><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:
=
140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>Conclusions</span></st=
rong><span
=
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;font-family:"Arial","sans-serif=
";
color:black'><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>It should be another
interesting year for e-learning. I=E2=80=99d be interested in what you =
think will be
significant e-learning developments in 2010.<o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p style=3D'line-height:140%'><span =
style=3D'font-size:7.5pt;line-height:140%;
font-family:"Arial","sans-serif";color:black'>In the meantime, I wish =
you
every success with your endeavours, may your faculty be innovative, =
your
administration supportive and your students brilliant. Happy =
2010!<o:p></o:p></span></p>
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